Presidents Putin & Xi To Have ‘Thorough Discussion’ On China – Russia Bilateral Issues In Beijing
Plenty to talk about as global geopolitical changes begin to create international shifts of opinion
The Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in China following a two-day visit to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan.
China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning has stated that the two intend to hold a thorough discussion of the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Moscow, as well as other issues of interest, saying that “The heads of state will meet to hold a thorough exchange of views on bilateral relations and issues of mutual interest” she said when asked if Xi and Putin would discuss the Ukraine issue and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Yesterday, (October 17) Putin attended the official welcome ceremony for the heads of delegations to the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, which is to be hosted by Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan.
The forum’s main events are being held at the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square today (Wednesday, October 18). Putin will also participate in the forum’s opening ceremony.
Also on Wednesday, Russian-Chinese talks will take place, after which the Russian President and Sergey Lavrov, the Foreign Minister, will continue a series of bilateral meetings.
Putin and Xi hold regular communications, while the two last met in Moscow in March. At that time, they issued a joint statement, worth reading in the context of the current meetings. Analysis of that can be accessed here.
The Beijing discussions can be expected to include:
Israel-Palestine
Both China and Russia have said that the only solution to the conflict is the full recognition of a Palestinian State. To that end, Russia put forward a proposal to the United Nations Security Council on Monday, which strictly condemned violence and hostilities against civilians, as well as all acts of terrorism, and called for the safe release of all hostages. In addition, the authors of the document advocated the unhindered provision and distribution of humanitarian aid and providing conditions for the evacuation of civilians. The document was supported by Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Gabon, and Mozambique but the United States, Great Britain, France and Japan opposed it and six more countries abstained. That meant the proposal failed to reach the required nine votes in favor and was dismissed.
That will not be the end of the matter as far as Beijing and Moscow are concerned. They will see a clear line having been drawn as regards a Western approach wishing to prolong the conflict and will be making diplomatic overtures to point this out to other UN member states, many of whom have been fairly neutral however are beginning to come around to a more considered approach. Once enough promised global support has been obtained, Beijing and Moscow will be looking to introduce reforms at the UN itself in an on-going struggle against its perceived Western bias.
Promoting a Multilateral World
This fits right in with Beijing and Moscow’s mutual agenda to promote a new ‘multilateral world order’ as opposed to what Beijing and Moscow both view as a ‘unipolar world order’. That is based around the United States foreign policy and including the European Union in addition to the other acknowledged ‘Western’ allies including Japan. We can expect to hear a lot more of this rhetoric from the BRI forum taking place in Beijing at the same time.
Ukraine
It appears that Ukrainian President Zelensky is losing support in the West in his conflict with Russia, a combination of somewhat abrupt, constantly demanding diplomacy and a lack of any clear results from the much touted ‘counter-offensive’, while there are additional concerns that US funding to Ukraine has also been siphoned off with little accountability. Some of the weapons turning up in the hands of Hamas are reportedly (but not, even if true, likely to be verified) from stock the United States sent to Kiev.
That won’t matter so much to either Putin or Xi, although a reduction of US funding will signal that either the conflict will be maintained indefinitely at the bare cost minimum from the West, or that Russia will prevail. It appears apparent that Ukraine cannot win. Discussions therefore may involve the role that China may be able to take as an intermediary.
Sanctions & Tariff Threats
A significant, and ongoing amount of time has and will continue to be devoted to planning ahead in terms of future perceived sanctions and tariff threats that could be imposed on China by the West should its relationship with the United States and EU become more hostile. Russia has of course considerable experience of this, and the two economies will be working out how, in the event of higher tariffs and/or sanctions are in future imposed, how the Chinese economy can maintain its standard of living.
Russia is key to this as the primary energy supplier, although China has been smart to sew up alternative sources as well. However, keeping China’s consumer population happy during such times of stress will be a major source of concern for Xi – an issue Putin is familiar with. The overall Russian population has been well shielded from the impact of Western sanctions, and China will want to learn from this and have contingencies in place – just in case.
BRICS
Both Xi and Putin will touch on the BRICS and its development – six new nations are poised to join from January 2024, including five MENA influential countries: Egypt (who have just issued their first RMB Panda Bond), Ethiopia, Iran, Saudia Arabia and the UAE, while other candidate countries such as Turkiye and Indonesia are perhaps waiting in the wings. Bear in mind that these are all significant Muslim nations.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Both China and Russia are founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) bloc, with regional security and especially in the Middle East now a growing part of its remit. In the larger Middle East region, Iran and Pakistan are full members, while regional dialogue partners include Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and the UAE.
There are likely to be discussions as concerns upgrading some of these to full membership status and especially given the current unstable nature of the Middle East region. Saudi Arabia and Turkiye in particular will have decisions to make as concerns their future security relations with the United States and NATO.
Belt & Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative has established more than 3,000 cooperation projects and mobilized nearly US$1 trillion of investment over the past decade. More than 150 countries and over 30 international organizations have signed cooperation documents with China under the BRI. Chinese investments into Russia have been accelerating as the country imports increasing volumes of energy, fertilizers, and grains from Russia, with bilateral trade expected to exceed US$200 billion this year.
An overview of the ten years of the Belt & Road Initiative can be seen here.
Bilateral Trade
China-Russia bilateral trade has been growing and not just in the energy sectors. Although bilateral trade is at record levels, there are a number of bottlenecks that need to be cleared up: insufficiently operating border and customs controls, the introduction of digital technology, bilateral use of currencies, and related logistic issues.
Much of this will be delegated to the Foreign Ministers to address, however mutual discussions and negotiations will occur to work out the best fit and future trade and manufacturing between the two economies. Cooperation in IT will be high on the agenda. We recently published a comprehensive analysis of China-Russia bilateral trade, that can be accessed here.
Summary
It is clear that in a fast-changing world, countries need to prepare for future shocks and have contingencies ready. This is exactly what the Xi-Putin meeting will be all about, with respective Foreign Ministers and other important officials all in attendance and taking care of their specific remits. Accordingly, apart from agreements perhaps to be later announced as regards upgrading some SCO members status and perhaps a fairly ambiguous statement concerning Israel and Palestine, I do not expect too much to be revealed as a result of these talks.
However, the groundwork will continue to be put in place to protect both from any future tensions with the West, contingency plans made, while both will look to influence non-Western international partners to instigate change at the highest levels of global governance.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the Chairman of Dezan Shira & Associates. He can be reached at asia@dezshira.com